Numerator, a data and tech company serving the market research space, has now quantified the rate at which eCommerce has accelerated for specific CPG categories during COVID-19. For the first time, brands and retailers can understand the step-change in pace with which consumer households turned to eCommerce solutions to meet their shopping needs. This is essential insight as brands seek to forecast 2nd half inventory and allocate marketing spend.
“COVID-19 has forever changed the shopping behaviors that have been considered the norm for decades,” said Eric Belcher, CEO, Numerator. “We’re seeing some brands and retailers throw out their playbooks and rethink how they run their business going forward, while others seem frozen. The data we’re publishing today should be a call to action for those who aren’t adapting at the pace of their consumers.”
The Numerator eCommerce Acceleration Index shows the dramatic spike in the rate of active online shoppers purchasing each category during COVID-19 relative to each category’s multi-year baseline with selected categories shared below. The following chart reads as “the rate of HH’s using online to purchase Ice Cream & Novelties during COVID (March 1 – May 15) was 9x the pre-COVID multi-year baseline.” A sampling of categories is shown below:
| COVID eCommerce Acceleration | ||
| Category | Index | Rate |
| Ice Cream & Novelties | 899 | 9.0x |
| Canned Foods | 736 | 7.4x |
| Frozen Foods | 721 | 7.2x |
| Soda & Sports & Energy Drinks | 575 | 5.8x |
| Toothpaste | 532 | 5.3x |
| Make-Up | 459 | 4.6x |
| Shampoo & Conditioner | 205 | 2.1x |
| Source: Numerator OmniPanel Analysis |
The acceleration rate provides a measurement of how COVID has shortened the cycle time of converting households to buy the category online. For example, Ice Cream & Novelties is gaining online household share at a rate that is 9 times greater than the historical rate. This means that for every month that passes during COVID time, it is as though we have experienced 9 months of growth (based on the historic rate) which means this category has moved 8 months ahead of where it was expected to be (9-1) every four weeks. Thus, after 2+ months of COVID, this category is almost 20 months ahead of the game.
Note that acceleration rate is one of several factors brands need to consider to understand this dynamic and plan accordingly.
Numerator is the only omnichannel consumer insights panel that can quantify both the acceleration in and the shift toward household usage of online solutions. This is significant because Numerator data confirms that once consumers create online buying habits for a given category, they buy more often, spend more per item, and spend more on the category in total.
Daily analysis of Numerator data confirms that the uplift in eCommerce spending has both rapidly accelerated and sustained over the course of 10 weeks ending May 15.
