Despite retail shrinkage being a $112B dollar problem in the U.S., addressing loss prevention remains a sensitive and challenging subject. Locking down highly stolen goods (HSGs) creates a fortress-like store built on mistrust that detracts from the customer experience. On the other hand, giving customers too much flexibility in their purchasing with self-checkout (SCO) kiosks has been a much-maligned cause of loss, whether from intentional theft or user error.

The answer is no longer simply stopping theft at the door or blaming a single point of failure. Instead, retailers must anticipate evolving theft tactics and adopt intelligent, full-store detection strategies. The retailers that succeed will shift from reactive loss prevention to proactive, insight-driven mitigation.

Theft Tactics Retailers Can Expect to Face This Year

Shoplifters are becoming more sophisticated, blending old techniques with new twists. They are increasingly nesting small, high-value items like cosmetics, OTC medications, and expensive drinks inside lower-cost products. The challenge for retailers is that nesting often bypasses traditional checkout monitoring solutions and appears legitimate unless detection transcends simple SCO validation.

Booster boxes, once associated primarily with organized retail crime (ORC) rings, are becoming more accessible in the regular shoplifting scene and harder to spot. The boxes have a hidden layer (i.e. trap door) where HSG can be placed while other cheaper items cover it up. Modern booster bags and boxes are slimmer, customizable, and sometimes disguised as medical or personal items. These tools are particularly effective in aisles with high SKU density and limited associate presence, making aisle-level detection critical.

Vision-based retail is not about removing people from stores, but about removing friction from how stores operate.

Barcode swapping has grown more precise and harder to detect. Thieves are now printing high-quality counterfeit barcodes or reusing legitimate ones from similar items, allowing them to easily bypass checkout with minimal risk. This tactic directly challenges retailers to move beyond barcode trust and toward item-level validation.

Lastly, the banana trick, where a shopper places an expensive item on the scale while scanning a low-cost product barcode, typifies how easily vanilla SCO systems can be gamed.The issue isn’t that this trick exists, but that not all retailers have access to real-time evidence of this happening.

The unifying thread tying all of these popular forms of theft together is they take advantage of a lack of sophistication in loss prevention technology and limited store visibility.

Why SCO Can’t be the Convenient Scapegoat for Shrinkage

For years, SCO has been the default villain in many loss prevention conversations. In fact, plenty of retailers like Dollar General, Five Below, Walmart, Target and more announced they plan to scale back their kiosks this year. While SCO does present unique risks, focusing solely on it as a source of loss oversimplifies the problem and distracts from where loss actually occurs, which is everywhere.

In the aisles, theft begins with selection, concealment, and product manipulation. Whether it’s nesting, bag stashing, or booster box loading mentioned earlier, many losses are already happening long before a shopper reaches checkout. According to Trigo’s research based on over 1,000 verified theft cases, 80% of commonly stolen items are concealed before reaching checkout.

Many losses also happen at manned checkouts. Sweethearting, ticket switching, and intentional under-scanning remain stubborn challenges. Shoppers who bypass checkout entirely (“skippers”) continue to exploit busy periods, staffing shortages, and vague store boundaries. Exit-zone detection is necessary, but insufficient if it’s the first time theft is addressed.

The future of loss prevention should not rely on a single point of failure but should instead monitor the full product journey from the aisle to the exits.

The Shift to Full-Store Detection

This year, retailers should invest in detection strategies that span the entire store: aisles, baskets, checkouts, and exits. This does not mean turning stores into surveillance environments, but rather layering technology that follows each product’s journey throughout the store in an unobtrusive way.

Modern computer vision and AI systems are increasingly capable of identifying loss events by leveraging existing CCTV infrastructure and without relying on facial recognition or invasive methods. These systems don’t focus on presumptive theft, they simply recognize actions like concealment, item swapping, misscans, and shelf interactions. Video evidence of each alert can be shared in real-time so workers can make decisions on how or whether to intervene. When applied consistently across the store, loss prevention technology can reduce reliance on any single control point. It can also provide valuable insights into theft patterns and loss trends, enabling retailers to optimize security staffing, store layouts, training, and intervention/deterrence policies.

Instead of looking at loss numbers after-the-fact or making blanket policy changes, teams can act earlier with more confidence and still provide a frictionless experience for honest shoppers.

From Loss Prevention to Inventory Intelligence

The next step for full-store loss prevention is how it can be used to feed inventory and merchandising decisions. When retailers can reliably identify what is being stolen, where, and how often, they gain a new layer of demand insight. HSG may require different replenishment strategies, or even assortment reconsideration.

Shrinkage isn’t going away, and neither are the tradeoffs retailers have been forced to make between protection and experience. But the next phase of loss prevention doesn’t have to feel so blunt or overwhelming. When detection expands beyond checkout and starts covering the full product journey from aisle to exit retailers gain a better idea of what’s actually happening in their stores. That clarity makes it possible to protect inventory, make better merchandising decisions, and have the option to step in earlier without frustrating honest shoppers.