With the latest Consumer Price Index report and the Federal Reserve’s slowing interest rate increases, there is finally some optimistic news about inflation lately. However, while these headlines are encouraging, consumers and small business owners may not be feeling the positive effects as they navigate the holiday shopping season and wrap up the year. As Bloomberg reported earlier last month, the common theme amongst many shoppers and local business owners is confusion about how dynamic economic conditions will influence consumer spending and impact demand at the holidays.

At Marqeta, our card issuing and processing platform enabled more than $110 billion in card spend in 2021. By examining data trends from these transactions, our team found that average purchase values provide an interesting window into how consumers are choosing to spend during this important retail season.

Some highlighted trends that our team identified from our platform this month echo the general national picture, with some indications of falling prices but no clear signals :

• Restaurant prices are sizzling: Average restaurant tabs are up almost 25% when comparing early Dec 2019 to the same dates in 2022. For consumers, this meant spending an average of more than $27.00 for a meal out this month.
  
• Pain at the pump is lessening: The average gas purchase on the Marqeta platform rose 66% between December 2019 and 2022 but has started to level off in the past few months, falling by 4.6% from Oct 2022 to Dec 2022 so far. Consumers had an average receipt of approximately $24.84 at the pump last month, compared to $23.23 in Dec 2021.
  
• Cutting back on high-end gifts or inflation on the decline?: After purchase prices increased by 26% from the 2020 holiday season to 2021, the average transaction price for jewelry and electronics has decreased 12.8% when you look at November and December in 2021 to November and December 2022. To holiday shoppers, this translated into an average purchase amount of just over $200 in these highly discretionary categories.
  
• Flying high, but not as high as expected: Average fares are 5% more expensive in November and December 2022 than the year prior, showing that inflation hasn’t had as significant an impact on air travel costs as other sectors. Travelers booking trips this year spent an average of just over $289.05 per airfare purchase, compared with $276.28 in December 2021.

Amid an unclear outlook for 2023, consumer uncertainty is a recurring theme. – Looking at the breadth of spending across our modern card issuing platform, we are afforded an interesting perspective into how many consumers are spending in the final weeks of 2022.

Rachel Huber has more than a decade of analyst experience for industry leaders like Fiserv and Javelin Strategy & Research. Currently, she is Market Intelligence Lead at Marqeta, the global modern card issuing platform, distilling data-driven trends into actionable insights.