Shoppers aren’t spending less—they’re spending differently. And in 2026, the way consumers decide where, when and how their money is used will reshape how retailers compete for every transaction.

Consumers expect high value for every dollar—and price, flexibility and control matter. Shoppers want purchases to be strategic and deliberate while also feeling meaningful. According to McKinsey, last year 75% of consumers reported trading down brands in at least one category by switching to lower-cost options. Yet, McKinsey also found that 39% of respondents still intended to splurge on certain items, which points to more selective choices, rather than a complete pullback in spending.

There are clear indications these behaviors will carry into the year ahead, with price concerns emerging as the defining headline of the past holiday season. Retailers can use these behaviors to plan around value and spending control to drive checkouts, more frequent engagement and more personalized experiences.

Points, rewards and stored value are strategic spending assets

Rising costs of living, elevated credit card balances, a stagnant job market and continued economic uncertainty will keep pushing shoppers to rethink how they manage their spending.

Research shows that a significant share of consumers have already changed how they shop—seeking value through tactics like buying more items on sale, choosing private labels, purchasing in bulk and using coupons.. But one of the fastest emerging financial trends is largely under the radar: consumers are using stored value to control spending. This means they’re using loyalty points, rewards, prepaid and gift cards, and even digital wallet balances like Venmo and PayPal.

Retailers should pay close attention to when and how shoppers use their stored value. This behavior keeps dollars within a brand’s ecosystem and encourages future visits, like when paired with loyalty rewards or targeted offers. It also reinforces the bigger shift showing consumers are looking for more ways to control when and how they spend.

AI and agentic commerce are changing how shoppers find value

AI is increasingly shaping how consumers shop, but its impact is not just about speed or convenience. Shoppers are increasingly using AI to narrow options, compare prices and cut through noise, especially when time and budgets are tight. Agentic commerce works best when it supports that process by capturing intent and guiding shoppers forward without taking control away.

In retail, many of the moments that matter most still come from discovery. Shoppers want the freedom to explore. Shoppers want to receive personalized ideas for things they didn’t plan to buy but want or need to. They also want to connect with a brand on their own terms.

Personalization works best when it’s part of a meaningful experience reflecting smart timing, individual preferences and spending boundaries. When AI tools use these signals well, shoppers feel understood in the moments that matter, and discovery becomes more relevant. When applied thoughtfully, AI does not replace the shopping experience. It can make it easier to shop with confidence.

Microgifting reflects how shoppers are redefining generosity

Gifting is changing. Many shoppers are moving away from large, once-a-year purchases to choosing smaller gifts more often. These moments still carry meaning and keep relationships active, and they feel easier to manage since they fit better with everyday spending habits. Microgifting lets people stay connected without the pressure of a single, high-spend occasion.

For retailers, this shift shows up as more frequent, lower-ticket transactions spread throughout the year rather than concentrated seasonal spikes. Shoppers are looking for ways to be thoughtful without overextending. They also want options that give recipients flexibility. That includes control over timing and use. Brands that make these smaller moments easy to navigate are more likely to stay constantly relevant as gifting becomes part of everyday life, not just for special occasions.

Gift card activity offers an early read on demand

Some of the first clues about consumer confidence appear right after the holidays. How and when shoppers use their gift cards, whether they spend them quickly or save them, reveals a lot about how people are feeling as they reset their budgets for the new year.

Post-holiday behavior consistently shows that consumers use gift cards to manage the aftereffects of seasonal spending. Some redeem quickly for everyday needs, while others hold value for future purchases. Either way, gift cards received over the holidays are pre-committed to certain retail categories—making them useful forecasting tools for upcoming spending, inventory needs and more.

For example, this past holiday season, our data showed significant surges in gift card purchases for grocery, mass merchants, fuel, and entertainment categories. The funds already on those cards will drive a spike in spending for those categories in the months to come (if they haven’t already). As a bonus, our research shows that when redeeming, recipients plan to spend an average of $108 beyond the original gift card value. Gift cards as stored value tools do not just represent opportunities to engage shoppers for pre-allocated funds. They also present opportunities to plan for and secure incremental spend.

How retailers can plan ahead to address these trends in 2026

Knowing the above insights can help merchants capture sales as costs of doing business rise. This could be through better forecasting based on previous spending behavior or gift card purchases, more personalized marketing and discovery thanks to AI, or smarter rewards that enhance spending power.

For instance, while price point is important to consumers, so are future cost savings opportunities. Incentives marketing is much more effective than relying on discounts alone and also adjust to shopper personas as they evolve so you can keep them engaged. Our research found that companies using rewards-based promotions reported 14% higher conversion rates and a 16% stronger return on marketing investment compared to those relying on discounts alone. This ROI can have a massive impact on retailers’ bottom line.

Smarter shopping, AI-driven personalization, microgifting and strategic gift card redemption are not isolated or passing trends. Together, they reflect shopper behaviors that are intentional and here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Retail strategies that incorporate these behaviors while offering flexibility and practical value will drive more valuable shopping experiences in 2026—for shoppers and merchants alike.